This matchup between the Rays and Astros has just a 7.5 O/U with two aces taking the mound in Minute Maid Park.
The Astros currently have a solid 4.98 implied total ahead of facing Blake Snell, whose had a bit of an up and down season that ultimately ended with a 4.29 ERA, 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA, 24.3% K-BB and 1.27 WHIP. Snell is a huge question mark coming into this game as he just recently returned from a two month absence (elbow surgery) on 9-17 and has made 3 starts since, failing to reach 3 innings pitched in any start. It really wouldn’t be surprising for Snell to show rust versus a stacked Astros lineup in this spot and get yanked relatively early. He also has the talent to shut them down. The Rays do have a league-best 3.21 SIERA from their bullpen over the past 30 days, and Snell will likely be on a very short leash. Carlos Correa (.436 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.421), George Springer (.397), Yordan Alvarez (.390), Alex Bregman (.382), Yuli Gurriel (.322), Michael Brantley (.316), Martin Maldonado (.272) and Jake Marisnick (.235) are all in the Astros projected lineup for tonight. Bregman and Springer have been the ‘Stros hottest bats with xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Gurriel (.179) and Alvarez (.251) have been their coldest bats.
The Rays have just a 2.52 implied total vs. Gerrit Cole, who has been insanely good all year and has posted an otherworldly 1.07 ERA / 1.50 FIP / 1.64 xFIP, 48.7% K rate, 4.6% BB rate and 0.64 WHIP over the past 30 days in 42 innings pitched. It is worth noting that those numbers came against terrible offenses (Seattle twice, Kansas City, Texas and LAA without Trout). The Rays faced Cole as recently on 8/28 in Minute Maid Park and Cole did give up 4 earned runs over 6 and 2/3 innings, though he also posted a 14/1 K/BB ratio and 0.66 xFIP in that game. If/when Cole is chased from the game, the Rays will face an Astros bullpen that has a 5th best 3.49 SIERA over the past 30 days. Austin Meadows (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ji-Man Choi (.375), Brandon Lowe (.365), Tommy Pham (.348), Yandy Diaz (.338), Willy Adames (.328), Travis D’Arnaud (.310 since joining TB), Joey Wendle (.295) and Kevin Kiermaier (.293) make up the projected lineup for the Rays tonight. Meadows, Choi and Lowe all have xwOBAs over .440 over the past 2 weeks, while Pham, d’Arnaud and Wendle have been cold with xwOBAs under .260. Most Rays bats are dirt cheap across the industry for this matchup.
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